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The Carbon Mirage: Unraveling the Myths of CO₂ and Climate Control

Part 2. - The Carbon Mirage

Distinguishing Thermodynamic Theory from Observation

In the first part of this series, we examined the economic peril of imposing "Net Zero" policies on economies that contribute negligibly to global emissions. We established that the foundation of these policies is the assertion that anthropogenic CO₂-a mere fraction of the 0.04% of carbon in our atmosphere-is the primary control knob of the Earth's climate.

However, a review of recent scientific literature and historical data suggests that this relationship may be inverted. By strictly adhering to thermodynamic laws and observational records, it appears that atmospheric CO₂ is largely a product of natural factors, specifically ocean temperature, rather than the primary driver of global warming.

1. The Causality Paradox: Temperature Leads, CO₂ Follows

The prevailing narrative relies on the assumption that human emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, trapping heat and driving temperatures upward. However, recent rigorous statistical analyses contradict this sequence.

According to a 2025 study published in the Science of Climate Change, the correlation between atmospheric CO₂ growth and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in the inter-tropical zone is remarkably strong (). This study demonstrates that atmospheric CO₂ is overwhelmingly governed by natural processes, specifically the outgassing of oceans driven by solar-induced surface temperatures.

This aligns with Henry's Law, a fundamental principle of physics dictating that the solubility of a gas in liquid decreases as the liquid warms. As tropical oceans warm due to insolation (solar exposure), they release massive quantities of CO₂; as they cool, they absorb it. The data indicates that 94.5% of the atmospheric CO₂ inflow originates from natural outgassing from oceans and soils, while fossil fuel emissions account for a negligible portion. Thus, CO₂ increase is a consequence of warming, not its primary cause.

2. The Myth of Persistence: The "5-Year" vs. "1000-Year" Debate

To justify the "Net Zero" transition, international bodies rely on models claiming that human-emitted CO₂ persists in the atmosphere for centuries, or even millennia. The IPCC asserts that 15% to 40% of an emitted pulse of CO₂ will remain in the atmosphere for longer than 1,000 years.

However, observational data regarding the residence time of Carbon-14 (C) and Carbon-13 (C) isotopes paints a different picture. The stock-to-outflow ratio of CO₂ molecules suggests a residence time of only about 5 years, not centuries. Because of this rapid turnover and the vast natural exchange of carbon between the atmosphere and the oceans, the specific accumulation of anthropogenic fossil fuel CO₂ in the atmosphere is estimated to be only 5.5% of the total stock.

Consequently, even if radical decarbonization policies were implemented, they would only affect this fractional 5.5% of the atmospheric total, leaving the massive natural fluxes that dictate the climate system untouched.

3. Flawed Models and Missing Variables

If the physical observations point to a natural cycle, why do official climate models project catastrophic warming driven by humans? The discrepancy lies in the reliance on theoretical constructs rather than empirical observation.

Critics argue that models used by the IPCC employ "misleading constructs" such as the "Bern function" and "adjustment times" to artificially inflate the persistence of CO₂ in the atmosphere. Furthermore, these models often fail to account for the complexity of cloud microphysics and aerosol interactions. Even scientists who support the warming consensus, such as James Hansen, acknowledge that "unmeasured aerosol forcing" allows climate models to match observed temperatures only by manipulating sensitivity parameters.

Furthermore, recent observational data challenges the "boiling earth" narrative. Despite claims of accelerating warming, recent meteorological records show significant cooling events and record snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere, including blizzards in China and snow in Saudi Arabia. These events align with observations of a "Grand Solar Minimum," suggesting that solar activity remains a dominant, yet often minimized, driver of Earth's climate variance.

4. The Benefits of CO₂

Finally, the "pollutant" classification of CO₂ ignores its biological necessity. Historical data reveals that vegetation productivity has increased by approximately 50% since 1900. This "greening" of the Earth is directly attributable to higher atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and longer growing seasons, which enhance photosynthesis and agricultural yields.

Conclusion

The economic sacrifice demanded by Net Zero relies on the premise that human emissions are the lever by which we control the climate. However, the scientific reality appears far less malleable. If atmospheric CO₂ is largely a product of ocean temperature-driven by solar cycles and thermodynamic laws-then policies aimed at reducing human emissions are targeting a symptom, not the cause.

The scientific literature suggests we are observing a system where natural forces dwarf human influence. As we move forward, we must ask whether dismantling industrial economies to alter 5.5% of a trace gas is an act of environmental stewardship, or an expensive exercise in futility.

References with their names and URLs

(where provided in the source text).

1. Primary Scientific Study on Carbon Cycle and Temperature Lag

  • Name: Veyres, C., Maurin, J-C., & Poyet, P. (2025). "Revisiting the Carbon Cycle." Science of Climate Change, Vol. 5.3, pp. 135-185.
  • URL/DOI:
  • Journal URL: https://scienceofclimatechange.org

2. Scientific Review on Global Warming Acceleration and Models

  • Name: Hansen, J. E., et al. (2025). "Global Warming Has Accelerated: Are the United Nations and the Public Well-Informed?" Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development, 67:1, 6-44.
  • URL/DOI:

3. Observational Data on Solar Activity and Cooling Events

  • Name: Electroverse (Cap Allon). "Documenting Earth Changes During The Next Grand Solar Minimum."
  • Specific Articles Referenced:
  • "Cold From Kashmir To The Plains; Snow In Saudi Arabia; El Niño In 2026, Then Resumed Cooling…" (December 18, 2025)
  • "Blizzard Slams Hokkaido, Japan; Northeast China to -44.3C…" (December 16, 2025)
  • URL: (Specific article URLs were not provided in the source text, only the platform name "Electroverse" and the dates).

4. Commentary on Building Codes and Climate Science

  • Name: Mark's Substack. "Architect David Denham - Climate Building codes started me questioning the science." (Nov 20, 2025).
  • URL: (Platform identified as Mark's Substack).

5. Supporting Study on Vegetation Productivity (Cited within Veyres et al.)

  • Name: Haverd, V., et al. (2020). "Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations." Global Change Biology, 26(4), 2390-2402.
  • URL/DOI:

6. Definitions of Global Warming vs. Climate Change

  • Name: NASA / Precipitation Education. "Whats in a Name? Global Warming vs. Climate Change."